Crypto Clueless, But Lots of Thoughts

So back in April 2014 I was busy sending around information on this new currency idea called bitcoin. I have NO FUCKING IDEA why I didn’t throw a $1,000 at it if I was so damn interested. JEEZ. lol

bitcoin.JPG

anyway…

I ended up throwing in $100 bucks at the end of 2017 when the buzz started. I then proceeded to throw in $10,000 more in 2018 as Bitcoin surged up over $19,000 a coin. Here’s the thing, I was putting my money in when the hype was crazy and losing money as the hype died, so I withdrew half of it to pay a bill for some float tank thing.

Flash forward to last month (Jan 2021) and this crazy little dog coin that Elon is pumping popped up… They call it DOGE. Through the election circus I had become a big fan of Elon because he’s a US loving rebel, and he’s got a good record for seeing what’s next. Like many people I saw DOGE as a chance to “get rich.” I bought in around 3 cents and road to 9 cents. I was on top of the world, I couldn’t lose. I was an official crypto investor, and I had a knack for knowing what’s coming next. LOL! Yes these thoughts existed in my subconscious, and I’m not proud of it.

Trading DOGE got me back into studying crypto. But like not average studying, like OBSESSIVE 9 hours a day for a few weeks. Long story short I quit a medication I had been on for years cold turkey and I was sort of sleepless manic and focused. So I poured it all into crypto. I became a “trader” and was putting big money in and out of alt coins to make quick bucks. TOTAL gambling!

gamble.jpg

Through this obsessive, manic, gambling, sleepless time… I’ve realized many things. Things I would say “I think I’ve learned” about crypto, stocks, compound interest, etc. I’ve had trouble sharing all my ideas in a conversation and I end up sounding like an obsessed idiot. WHICH maybe I am. But here goes anyway, hope you get something from this.

In order of importance:

1.As I was studying trading and investing I would stumble upon random Warren Buffet quotes. This struck me as true even though I couldn’t resist chasing quick money.

war.JPG

I noticed I was losing out on the moment. I was watching prices go up and down and up and down. I was trading at 4am. Watching prices to go to sleep, to wake up, it was crazy! Funny thing is too, I wasn’t that good at it. It was like betting on what a crowd of humans will do. But they’re always changing, always emotional. The news is changing, weather is changing, money is changing. It was all entirely unpredictable. But I did notice, because of the market, things were always eventually going up. I got out of minute trading, and graduated to hour. Then from hour to a full day play. Then from a day to a multiple day “big hit” and that’s when reality started to hit me. What if taking a small win every day beat a big hit? What if the real move was weekly? Or monthly? Or yearly?

This was when I started to think long term. AND I realized that little daily gains beat the big hits every few days. Quick example:

One thousand dollars making 5% for 4 days = $1,215.50

One thousand dollars waiting for a big 20% hit on the fourth day = $1,200.00

Funny thing is too when I was waiting for the big hit I was way more stressed and obsessed. Not a great way to live, although sometimes I like the feeling.

smoke.JPG

From there I started to get deeper into long term compounding interest ideas like my 1% thought. Did you have any clue that growing your money 1% a day for one year ends up multiplying your money by about 38 times!! So you could potentially start with $1,000 on January 1st and by December 31st you’d have $37,783.40 ! That to me is insane! And I quickly started looking into automated trading software to figure out how to do this. After all, I couldn’t lose, 1% should be easy!

Around this time the crypto market went BEAR. Or so I think they call it. The time when you can’t make a fucking dime no matter how hard you try.lol So I know there’s many ways to make money in any market, but throwing around a bunch of money and getting hosed no matter how much monkey logic I used felt deflating and stressful. AND it felt like someone was out there playing on my emotions. No matter what call I made, it went the opposite. I really feel like the amateur traders response is already calculated and known. You know computers have been tracking market and conditions and responses for years and years. Your just a predictable pawn with money to milk from.

AFTER DEFEAT

For some reason I was able to accept defeat in trading. I realized, ya sure, I could get good at this gambling and beat other suckers out there, but for what? At what cost? Do I want a life dedicated to this stuff? What if Warren Buffet knows what he’s talking about? What if real money is in the long play? I also don’t want to be the victim of a market. I want long term big money with a certain amount of safety.

From here I just started to study crypto currency’s. Even deeper, with the lens of LONG term investing. My buddy William got me onto an app called Clubhouse that has a LOT of experts talking on every subject imaginable. The quality of speakers seems to be pretty high and the variety is amazing. I went into Clubhouse with a porfolio that was maybe 30% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, 20% Doge Coin, 20% Lite XRP and Other. I didn’t even like Bitcoin much and to be honest I’m always pulling for the underdoge. But after many hours of listening to people debate I’ve decided to go 70% Bitcoin, 30% Others (depending on what I’m feeling). Why you ask? Well shit. Bitcoin is by far and away the leader and very established. There’s old government bunkers turned into Bitcoin (offline/cold ) storage vaults with armed guards. As far as a coin failing… there’s a lot of Bitcoin that won’t even be accessible easy because people DO NOT plan on selling it. Bitcoin also has a cap of 21 million coins so its deflating constantly. AND it’s going to easily pass 100k a coin this year (2021). Some countries have banned it, some have adopted it and toppled their local currency.

Not to mention when the crypto market has crashed in the past (and it will again) I heard 90% of Alt Coins die. Alt Coin is any alternative to Bitcoin. Alt’s have a lot of pump and dump, short term, scammy things going on, BUT some are here to stay. This brings me to another point. Bitcoin is looking to be the gold bar of crypto currencies. Quickly we’ll find alternative coins that serve a purpose. We’ll need a cash of crypto, and a credit card of crypto, and you name it. This will not be a Bitcoin only future. I can assure you.

The reason I feel like I know is the way the hard core Bitcoiners act and speak. Many of them are so sure this is “it” and all other coins are “shit coins” that you can tell a flaw in thinking is happening. I mean yes it’s “it” right now, and it will likely be for many many years, maybe ever. But it can be beat, and there will be more useful coins for other reasons. Common sense tells me that during a boom of a new technology many will thrive. There isn’t only one seat on this bus. And I can’t imagine not investing even a smaller percentage into smaller up and coming coins. From everything I’ve studied a blend of these characters is the play right now.

IMG-5405.jpg

Two more topics I haven’t fleshed out yet… but I want to get this posted and time stamp it.

  1. We all want to be one step ahead of where we are money wise, but it’s all relative

2. Don’t think in coins, think in money sitting in an interest rate.